Forecast of the annual maximum wet-bulb temperature (TW$_{\rm max}$) averaged over land between 30°S and 30°N. Place your mouse on the interactive chart to read the probability of setting new records. The current Oceanic Niño Index forecast for December 2023 is 2.0 based on IRI (last updated Nov 2023).
This forecast is based on Zhang et al. 2023.
References
2023
-
Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance from the Current State of El Niño
Yi Zhang, William R Boos, Isaac Held, and 2 more authors
submitted, 2023
Human bodies, ecosystems and infrastructures display a non-linear sensibility to extreme temperatures occurring during heatwave events. Preparing for such events entails to know how high surface air temperatures can go. Here we examine the maximal reachable temperatures in Western Europe. Taking the July 2019 record-breaking heatwave as a case study and employing a flow analogues methodology, we find that temperatures exceeding 50 ∘C cannot be ruled out in most urban areas, even under current climate conditions. We analyze changes in the upper bound of surface air temperatures between the past (1940–1980) and present (1981–2021) periods. Our results show that the significant increase in daily maximum temperatures in the present period is only partially explained by the increase of the upper bound. Our results suggest that most of the warming of daily maximum surface temperatures result from strengthened diabatic surface fluxes rather than free troposphere warming.